This report outlines the methodology and results of quantifying Switzerland’s reference economic outlook using the GEM-E3-CH model, aligned with the SPS4 Walk and Talk scenario from the SURE pathway scenarios. Concurrently, the reference outlook for the rest of the model economies – EU27+UK, China, USA, and the Rest of the World – is presented. The approach is divided into two main stages: first, collecting historical data and economic projections from official sources; and second, calibrating the GEM-E3-CH model to reflect long-term trends and projections. For Switzerland, the first stage uses data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (BFS), while projections are obtained from the CROSS reference scenario. For the rest of the economies, we utilize historical and projections’ data from the IMF, UN, and OECD. The second stage involves using the model to generate consistent projections of key economic variables, ensuring that that the balance of transactions is closed, both the short- and long-term dynamics of the Swiss economy are captured. The report is structured into two sections: a methodology section explaining the process and rationale, and a presentation of the economic outlook results for Switzerland.
