Overview

Our objectives

Assessment

of the sustainability and resilience of the future renewable-based

Swiss energy system with a long term perspective focusing on 2035 and 2050.

Publications

Development

of an integrated quantitative analytical framework

based on modelling tools and indicator databases

Toolbox

Engagement

of stakeholders

for the evaluation of indicators, as well as future energy pathways and their sustainability and resilience implications and related competing objectives

Stakeholder Forum

Application

of the tool box on real case studies

on Swiss national level and for several regional or topic-focused case studies and develop strategies for the transition towards sustainable and resilient energy systems including roadmaps, strategy documents etc. jointly with corresponding stakeholders.

Case Studies

Pathways and Shocks

SURE aims to analyze the sustainability and resilience of Switzerland’s transition to a carbon-free economy by 2050 through an integrated assessment of various dimensions such as environment, natural resources, public health, economics, supply security, and social well-being. The analysis involves a novel analytical framework that utilizes multiple energy models and quantitative tools to develop narratives of long-term pathways and disruptive events that can affect the energy transition. These storylines have been developed based on the status-quo of knowledge and modelling expertise without assigning any preference or likelihood. Four different storylines and disruptive events are developed to assess the system’s performance across sustainability and resilience indicators. Shock scenarios are used to assess the impact of sudden disruptive events on the energy system.

4 SURE Pathway Scenarios (SPS)

which:

  • Capture major developments in a long-term perspective
  • Describe storylines across economy, society, technology, environment, policy dimensions
  • Can be explorative and normative
  • Enable “what-if” analyses and are not forecasts
  • World gradually implements green strategies
  • High regional and energy market integration
  • Social behaviour supporting sustainability actions
  • World gravitates toward a multi-polar order
  • Regional conflicts increase energy security concerns
  • Social behaviour willing to “pay for more security”
  • Regions implement climate policies at different speeds
  • Moderate regional and energy market integration
  • Social behaviour supporting local energy markets
  • World follows a path not markedly different from today
  • Geopolitical situation as of today
  • Social behaviour in favor of proven technical options

5 Shock Scenarios

which:

  • Occur suddenly to a pathway and is characterized by time, location, duration and intensity
  • Cover several shock dimensions: economy, environment, technosphere, society, politics
  • Are transient or disruptive
  • Are applied to several pathway scenarios
  • Sudden deterioration of exchange rates between Asia and RoW
  • Impacts commodities and techs costs at all economic sectors
  • Increase the cost of imports 10-40% in Asian capital market
  • High temperatures and record low precipitation
  • Increases electricity, stresses the grid, disrupts hydropower
  • 4-6 months of drought, 5-14 days within 2-3 weeks of heat wave
  • Sudden cold wave and dry fall
  • Increases electricity and heat, disrupts energy & mobility infra
  • 2-6 weeks of cold wave
  • Sudden population growth in CH due to (climate) refugees
  • 10.4 million in 2035, high socioeconomic inequality
  • 60-80% of the refugees in CH live in energy & mobility poverty
  • A political decision around 2030s to re-introduce nuclear
  • Variants: from not further pushing the phase-out of nuclear power to a strong and dynamic promotion of nuclear

Our integrated analysis framework

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