Overview

Our objectives

Assessment

of the sustainability and resilience of the future renewable-based

Swiss energy system with a long term perspective focusing on 2035 and 2050.

Publications

Development

of an integrated quantitative analytical framework

based on modelling tools and indicator databases

Toolbox

Engagement

of stakeholders

for the evaluation of indicators, as well as future energy pathways and their sustainability and resilience implications and related competing objectives

Stakeholder Forum

Application

of the tool box on real case studies

on Swiss national level and for several regional or topic-focused case studies and develop strategies for the transition towards sustainable and resilient energy systems including roadmaps, strategy documents etc. jointly with corresponding stakeholders.

Case Studies

Pathways and Shocks

SURE aims to analyze the sustainability and resilience of Switzerland’s transition to a carbon-free economy by 2050 through an integrated assessment of various dimensions such as environment, natural resources, public health, economics, supply security, and social well-being. The analysis involves a novel analytical framework that utilizes multiple energy models and quantitative tools to develop narratives of long-term pathways and disruptive events that can affect the energy transition. These storylines have been developed based on the status-quo of knowledge and modelling expertise without assigning any preference or likelihood. Four different storylines and disruptive events are developed to assess the system’s performance across sustainability and resilience indicators. Shock scenarios are used to assess the impact of sudden disruptive events on the energy system.

4 SURE Pathway Scenarios (SPS)

which:

  • Capture major developments in a long-term perspective
  • Describe storylines across economy, society, technology, environment, policy dimensions
  • Can be explorative and normative
  • Enable “what-if” analyses and are not forecasts
  • World gradually implements green strategies
  • High regional and energy market integration
  • Social behaviour supporting sustainability actions
  • World gravitates toward a multi-polar order
  • Regional conflicts increase energy security concerns
  • Social behaviour willing to “pay for more security”
  • Regions implement climate policies at different speeds
  • Moderate regional and energy market integration
  • Social behaviour supporting local energy markets
  • World follows a path not markedly different from today
  • Geopolitical situation as of today
  • Social behaviour in favor of proven technical options

5 Shock Scenarios

which:

  • Occur suddenly to a pathway and is characterized by time, location, duration and intensity
  • Cover several shock dimensions: economy, environment, technosphere, society, politics
  • Are transient or disruptive
  • Are applied to several pathway scenarios
  • Sudden increase in the interest rates in Switzerland and the rest of the regions
  • Deteriorating financial conditions have an impact on Switzerland’s decarbonization path
  • The increase in the Swiss interest rate will range from 0.5% to 1.5% in 2030, depending on the shock intensity.
  • Up to 3 weeks of very high temperatures follow 4-6 months of record low precipitation
  • High increase in electricity demand, mainly due to intensive cooling
  • Low generation from hydropower and serious stresses on the grid
  • Up to 6 weeks of very low temperatures follow heavy snowfall after a cold and dry fall
  • High increase in heating and electricity demands.
  • Low generation from solar PV, low levels of pumped hydro storage, low imports, and serious stresses on the grid 
  • Following climate disasters and violent conflicts across the globe, CH agrees to welcome refugees, causing a sudden population growth.
  • Resident population in CH ranges between 9.95 and 11.03 million in 2035, depending on the shock intensity
  • Upon arrival, 60-80% of the refugees in CH live in temporary shelters
  • A political decision around 2030s to re-introduce nuclear energy
  • This shock adds a new option to the energy system and integrates uncertainty by affecting risk perceptions.
  • Depending on the intensity of the shock, renewable energy, and nuclear energy come with varying higher risk premiums.

Our integrated analysis framework

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