Modeling spatial scenarios of disruptive growth in PV and heat pumps
The objective of this report is to model spatially-explicit scenarios of growth in solar PV, heat pumps, and battery electric vehicles in Switzerland from 2020 to 2050, using statistical and optimization models. The report presents the acquired results as three journal paper manuscripts: (i) a manuscript on spatially-explicit probabilistic projections of solar PV, heat pumps, and battery electric vehicles in Switzerland until 2050; (ii) a manuscript on comparing statistical and optimization models for generating spatially-explicit Swiss projections of solar PV installations in the short run, and (iii) a manuscript on statistical analysis of spatial patterns in residential heat pump adoption in Switzerland. Overall, this report results in spatially-explicit projections of growth in solar PV, heat pumps, and battery electric vehicles by 2050, including most likely and more disruptive, yet less likely developments. If the current trends continue, Switzerland is on track to only have 12.5 GW of solar PV, 0.6 million buildings with heat pumps, and 1.4 million battery electric vehicles by 2050, and hence needs to become more ambitious to reach its net-zero emissions target with higher certainty by 2050. Using statistical models, the report also identifies socio-demographic and techno-economic predictors of spatial adoption of solar PV and heat pumps in Switzerland, including some insights on the role of policy. Statistical models are overall found to be better fit for the purpose for modeling short-term as well as long-term spatial projections of these granular technologies.