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Research in SURE is largely based on the application of analysis tools that use and produce comprehensive numerical output. The Publications Section makes such data accessible and facilitates the exchange with other researchers, such as through the SWEET CROSS joint activity.
The resilience and security of the energy system are currently at the center of international interest and top priorities, especially for Europe. As such a complicated and multidimensional concept, the fortification and enhancement of energy security are of paramount importance for energy policy making. Under such circumstances, the need for transparent and holistic evaluation frameworks to benchmark national energy security and appraise the achieved improvement arises. This research proposes a multicriteria decision aid methodology to evaluate and rank the energy security performance of the 35 countries of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), based on several evaluation criteria. For this purpose, a preference elicitation framework is developed, based on the method of cards and heuristically selected pairwise questions. Robustness is assessed, with the aid of indicators, measuring the reduction of the model’s feasible space, and rank acceptability indices. The latter stem from the implementation of the hit and run weighting sampling algorithm and a synergy of the SMAA algorithm with the Choquet integral, approached as an importance index. The elicitation questions are automatically sampled and selected, assuring a high information gain in the most unstable criteria, while averting the bias of favouring the predominant ranks, achieved in the previous elicitation rounds. The complete framework is applied first to various instances of a small-scale ranking problem, attempting to minimize the number of required questions and the cognitive effort of the decision maker. Finally, this framework is applied to evaluate and rank the energy security of European countries. This framework adds to the whole assessment the subjective nature of the preferences of a European energy expert, serving the objective to achieve a personalized energy security ranking and provide guidelines and areas for improvement at a country level.
CONTACT PERSON
Peter Burgherr
Digitalization enables new social practices such as teleworking, e-learning or e-commerce, which replace well-established ones such as commuting to work, going to school or going for shopping. While these new practices are less energy intensive than the ones they replace, they can be associated with rebound effects that increase energy consumption in other sectors. For example, while teleworking may reduce consumption in transport, it can increase heating and electricity consumption at home. Therefore, this talk attempts to answer the following questions: • What are the effects of new energy consumption behaviors induced by digitalization on Swiss low-carbon pathways, and • Can digitalization positively contribute to the energy transition? In this presentation, Lidia Stermieri describes and demonstrates a new modeling framework developed in the context of her PhD thesis that couples the well-established Swiss TIMES Energy Systems Model (STEM) with a new socio-economic Energy Model for Digitalisation (SEED). SEED is a unique agent-based model based on the social practice approach. It analyzes the impact of new lifestyles enabled by Information and Communication Technologies on energy consumption patterns. The combined application of SEED and STEM allows accounting for socio-economic and technical aspects affecting the rate of adoption of technologies from heterogeneous consumers by accounting for their preferences, social mechanism of changes and different drivers of technology and digitalization diffusion when assessing the long-term configuration of the Swiss energy system under different technology, resource or policy constraints. In the talk, the integrated STEM-SEED framework is applied to assess net-zero CO2 emissions pathways for Switzerland, considering different digitalization levels of the society. We find that the increased adoption of digital lifestyles results in an overall demand reduction that mitigates the energy system costs to achieve the zero CO2 emissions target in 2050, which in turn implies economic benefit to the Swiss society. The challenges to achieve these results and the related opportunities for Swiss society will be discussed.
CONTACT PERSON
Lidia Stermieri
To reach the goals of long-term energy and climate policy, the contribution of the industrial sector is important. Upgrading low temperature industrial waste heat using electric high-temperature heat pumps (HTHPs) can improve the overall energy-efficiency and mitigate CO2 emissions by replacing fossil fuels. The pulp and paper and the food and beverage industries use significant quantities of heat up to 200 °C and therefore have a high potential for the application of HTHPs. In order to assess the role of HTHPs, a techno-economic bottom-up cost optimization model is developed building on the Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM). We present an advanced modeling framework including energy and material flows, with a high temporal resolution and a segregation of the temperature level of the process heat. The results show that HTHPs are cost-effective up to a temperature of 150 °C. Switzerland has the economic potential to deploy of about 100 MWth in the pulp and paper industry and 900 MWth in the food and beverage industry by 2050. Incentivizing the exploitation of this significant potential will require very high CO2 prices of several hundred €/tCO2 or additional policies to overcome investment barriers by supporting investment and flexible system-serving operation of heat pumps.
Nuclear energy is a base low-carbon and dispachable electricity production source. Its longevity and capital intensiveness, requiring large upfront investments, make it difficult for private investors to be involved in nuclear projects. In 2017, the Swiss people voted in favor of the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050 and the progressive phase-out of nuclear power while the reactors currently in operation can continue to produce electricity as long as they comply with the safety standards. In a context of tension on the supply of electricity, the option to use nuclear power in the future is growing in the debate, in Switzerland as well as in Europe. This Master’s thesis aims at investigating technical and economical aspects of different options for the use of nuclear power in Switzerland. Nuclear power is competitive and profitable in Switzerland under low risk, carbon-constrained policies and contained construction costs. The results demonstrate through stochastic cost modeling based on real and Swiss-specific data that large scale nuclear power in Switzerland is likely to be economical as long as interest rates and construction time are limited or that climate policies are reinforced. New concepts such as Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are likely to be competitive under robust learning in Switzerland and if integrated design enables substantial cost reduction. If interest rates are high, and if there is no worldwide deployment implying limited or no learning, SMRs are likely to be uncompetitive in Switzerland. Eventually, cogeneration products such as hydrogen are only viable options in net-zero scenarios. This Master’s Thesis can be a starting point for a more detailed bottom-up cost assessment for SMRs and the integration of nuclear power in Swiss energy models to assess the cost of such energy on climate policies.
CONTACT PERSON
Tom Kober
Diffusion of granular renewable energy technologies is known to be spatially heterogeneous within countries. We investigate patterns in the distribution of 319’341 residential buildings with heat pumps in 2’148 Swiss municipalities in 2021. Using stepwise regression and spatial statistical analysis, we identify influential technical and socio-economic factors of residential heat pump diffusion as well as associated spatial traits. The results show that residential heat pumps primarily have a higher diffusion level in sparsely populated areas where the shares of agricultural area and detached houses are higher, hinting at an urban-rural difference. Economic factors, like income and electricity price, have a limited impact on residential heat pump diffusion in Switzerland, except for unemployment rate that has a negative impact. Some Swiss cantons (states) have a distinctly higher or lower residential heat pump diffusion level than others, a phenomenon possibly induced by cantonal policies. The spatial diffusion of residential heat pumps also tends to be spatially clustered, not only within cantons but also at the inter-cantonal level, indicating spatial spillovers. These findings could help policymakers promote heat pump diffusion in a more effective and precise manner.
CONTACT PERSON
Evelina Trutnevyte
In order to reduce anthropogenic environmental impacts, it is important to properly measure them. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a well-established tool for the quantification of the potential environmental impacts of a product or service throughout its complete life cycle. Read the full summary on the link.
CONTACT PERSON
Peter Burgherr
Michel D. Obrist (2022) Long-Term Energy and Emission Pathways for the Swiss Industry. Dissertation PSI/ETH Zürich No. 28890
CONTACT PERSON
Tom Kober
This report defines the four identified pathways scenarios of the SWEET-SURE project as well as five scenarios representing disruptive events. The development of these scenarios are based on an interdisciplinary and inclusive approach including the project’s research partners and the SURE stakeholder forum. The scenarios are described in detail and corresponding information to quantify the scenarios using energy models is provided. Beyond this, model connections of the comprehensive analytical framework of SURE are sketched, highlighting the major parameters and variables exchanged between the SURE models for the national analysis. As such, this report represents a fundamental document for the application of the analytical framework and the collaboration among the modelling teams in SWEET-SURE.
CONTACT PERSON
Evangelos Panos
This research activity aims to produce environmental and resource indicators for the materials required by the energy systems in Switzerland over time and across scenarios and shocks based on life-cycle assessment. The Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) model in SURE will use selected indicators to represent specific aspects of the environment and resilience dimensions of the proposed decision support framework. The aim of this activity is to design the exchange and harmonization of information between the different energy (Swiss TIMES Energy system Model, STEM), building (Building Stock Model, BSM), and economy (Global Equilibrium Model, GEM-E3) models and the life-cycle assessment module. Identifying the relevant input and output parameters from these models and designing a procedure to integrate them into the life-cycle database is essential.
CONTACT PERSON
Romain Sacchi
In Switzerland, a large part of the population lives in urban areas. Considering the increasing impact of climate change on cities in general, and the effects of geopolitical events on energy security, increasing the resilience and sustainability of the energy system is gaining importance for urban governance. Both aspects need to be considered in parallel, as they can enforce but also contradict each other. This report therefore proposes a resilience and sustainability concept for urban energy systems and its transformation, firstly to contribute to the literature and secondly to develop a basis for the upcoming case study with the city of Zurich.
CONTACT PERSON
Marc Melliger
This report describes the Energy grid modelling framework (E-Grid) developed at ETHZ for the SURE modelling framework.
CONTACT PERSON
Alex Fuchs
This research activity focuses on bringing the general SURE framework to the cantonal level and complementing it with a tool aimed at regional policymaker end-users. This case study for canton Ticino fits within the general SURE framework in terms of the main objective of i) using models to describe energy system transition pathways and ii) assessing the sustainability and resilience of the resulting energy system through a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). As in the SURE framework, the cantonal case study emphasises on an early and continuous engagement of stakeholders that will help frame the challenges and opportunities of the energy system transition scenarios.
CONTACT PERSON
Jalomi Tardif
The objective of this report is to model spatially-explicit scenarios of growth in solar PV, heat pumps, and battery electric vehicles in Switzerland from 2020 to 2050, using statistical and optimization models. The report presents the acquired results as three journal paper manuscripts: (i) a manuscript on spatially-explicit probabilistic projections of solar PV, heat pumps, and battery electric vehicles in Switzerland until 2050; (ii) a manuscript on comparing statistical and optimization models for generating spatially-explicit Swiss projections of solar PV installations in the short run, and (iii) a manuscript on statistical analysis of spatial patterns in residential heat pump adoption in Switzerland. Overall, this report results in spatially-explicit projections of growth in solar PV, heat pumps, and battery electric vehicles by 2050, including most likely and more disruptive, yet less likely developments. If the current trends continue, Switzerland is on track to only have 12.5 GW of solar PV, 0.6 million buildings with heat pumps, and 1.4 million battery electric vehicles by 2050, and hence needs to become more ambitious to reach its net-zero emissions target with higher certainty by 2050. Using statistical models, the report also identifies socio-demographic and techno-economic predictors of spatial adoption of solar PV and heat pumps in Switzerland, including some insights on the role of policy. Statistical models are overall found to be better fit for the purpose for modeling short-term as well as long-term spatial projections of these granular technologies.
CONTACT PERSON
Evelina Trutnevyte
The manufacturing industry and the national public transport are a significant part of the Swiss energy system. These sectors not only have decarbonisation goals, but also need to be prepared against sudden energy supply and demand disruptions. However, the implementation of sustainability and resilience goals proves to be a challenge. Here, we propose a general resilience and sustainability concept for these sectors and apply it to concrete cases. Depending on the sector (industry or transport), resilience and sustainability concepts of the main stakeholders, the industry in Basel and Swiss Federal Railways (SBB), are at different stages of their development.
CONTACT PERSON
Marc Melliger
This report addresses the cost-effectiveness of process heat decarbonisation and power-to-heat options in the manufacturing industry with process temperatures of up to 120 °C. Options include high temperature heat pumps (HTHP), renewable or low-carbon fuels or combined heat and power plants. Previous studies have identified a large potential to adopt such options in Switzerland. However, high technology, energy and integration costs have been obstacles to integrate these technologies in existing processes. In addition, energy price developments have been very dynamic. Hence, we here provide an up-to-date assessment
CONTACT PERSON
Marc Melliger
Recently, social tipping dynamics relevant to sustainability have become the subject of a growing literature. Numerous publications seek to bring the concept of tipping (back) from the natural to the social system and make important contributions to its conceptualization, definition, and constant refinement. Yet, and despite its wide array, the current literature has a blind spot: it does neither adequately integrate, conceptualize, nor measure the role of the political sphere and thus underestimates its importance for social tipping processes. This is the starting point of our contribution, which not only emphasizes the political dimension's relevance to the analysis of social tipping, but also proposes two main ways to integrate it into such analyses: by conceptualizing the political sphere either as a trigger of social tipping, or as an element that can tip itself. Moreover, to capture the complexity of the political sphere, namely the interaction between networks, actors, and processes, we suggest analysing the political sphere along its three elements: polity, politics, and policy. We illustrate the empirical benefit of these refinements by presenting a comparative case study of the nuclear phase-out in Germany and Switzerland.
CONTACT PERSON
Isabelle Stadelmann
In this issue of Joule, Way et al. use data-driven probabilistic technology forecasts to show that rapid global decarbonization until 2070 is likely to have lower costs than no decarbonization. Besides good news for climate policy, Way et al. reopen the discussion on probabilistic methods in energy and integrated assessment modelling.
CONTACT PERSON
Evelina Trutnevyte
Um von den Kraftwerken zu den Verbrauchern zu gelangen, muss der elektrische Strom durch das 6700 km lange Übertragungsnetz fliessen. Ohne dieses wäre die Versorgung mit elektrischer Energie nicht möglich. Eigentümerin und Betreiberin des Übertragungsnetzes ist Swissgrid – eine privat-rechtliche Aktiengesellschaft. Swissgrid ist von Gesetzes wegen dafür verantwortlich, dass schweizweit dauernd und jederzeit die nötige Menge Strom zu angemessenen Preisen erhältlich ist. Doch was geschieht, wenn Swissgrid dies nicht mehr gewährleisten kann? Die Auswirkungen auf die gesamte Bevölkerung und die Wirtschaft wären drastisch: Ein Blackout verursacht einen Schaden von vier Milliarden Franken – pro Tag. Für diesen Schaden würde zwar in erster Linie die privat-rechtliche Swissgrid haften. Doch den Bund trifft stets die letzte Verantwortung. Das vorliegende Werk zeigt deshalb nicht nur detailliert das Haftungsregime auf, sondern geht auch der Frage nach, wie sinnvoll es ist, die sichere Stromversorgung der Schweiz in die Hände einer AG zu legen.
CONTACT PERSON
Reto Müller
In recent years many Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies have been conducted to quantify the environmental performance of products and services. Some of these studies propagated numerical uncertainties in underlying data to LCA results, and several applied Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to some parts of the LCA model to determine its main uncertainty drivers. However, only a few studies have tackled the GSA of complete LCA models due to the high computational cost of such analysis and the lack of appropriate methods for very high-dimensional models. This study proposes a new GSA protocol suitable for large LCA problems that, unlike existing approaches, does not make assumptions on model linearity and complexity and includes extensive validation of GSA results. We illustrate the benefits of our protocol by comparing it with an existing method in terms of filtering of noninfluential and ranking of influential uncertainty drivers and include an application example of Swiss household food consumption. We note that our protocol obtains more accurate GSA results, which leads to better understanding of LCA models, and less data collection efforts to achieve more robust estimation of environmental impacts. Implementations supporting this work are available as free and open source Python packages.
CONTACT PERSON
Romain Sacchi
The contribution of the industrial sector is essential to realize long-term energy and climate policy goals. The present research paper explores trajectories improving energy efficiency and reaching net-zero emissions in the Swiss pulp and paper industry by 2050. A techno-economic bottom-up cost optimization model is developed based on the Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) and applied for a scenario analysis. Establishing an advanced modeling methodology including material and product flows in addition to energy flows, allowed us to assess explicit process improvements and the impact of specific innovative production technologies. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates the value of dividing industrial heat demand into different temperature levels which enables a detailed assessment of high-temperature heat pumps and waste heat recovery as important decarbonization options in industry. The results of the scenario analysis performed with this advanced model show that an energy reduction of 23% and a reduction in the annual CO2 emissions of 71% until 2050 would result from a cost-optimal technology deployment even without major policy intervention, given the assumptions made on technology progress and costs. These improvements are achieved by fuel switching, improvements in the production processes and deployment of efficient technologies, in particular high-temperature heat pumps and efficient motors. Achieving a net-zero goal in the pulp and paper industry by 2050 requires increased amounts of biomass in the short term and additionally high-temperature heat pumps up to 200 °C in the long-term in case of biomass scarcity. On the other hand, this leads to 49% higher energy related costs compared to the baseline development, if all other sectors decarbonize simultaneously to reach net-zero CO2 emissions in Switzerland.
CONTACT PERSON
Tom Kober
Digitalization is expected to play an important role in mitigating environmental issues and supporting the energy transition to meet future energy and climate targets. To understand the role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) applications in the energy transition, a prior understanding of their implications on user behavior and energy consumption is essential to identify and prevent potential rebound effects. With a systematic literature review, this paper investigates approaches to quantify behavioral changes and energy impacts for different ICT applications. The review highlights a gap in linking the effects of ICT on users' behavior and impacts on energy consumption over a long time horizon and beyond the specific regional case study. We find that the difficulty in expanding the temporal and spatial resolution is related to the type of approach used to assess user effects. The review highlights and describes the problem of selecting the appropriate approach to perform an analysis that is robust in assessing both changes in user behavior on the one hand, and future energy implications related to ICT applications on the other hand.
CONTACT PERSON
Evangelos Panos
Digitalization is expected to play an important role in mitigating environmental issues and supporting the energy transition to meet future energy and climate targets. To understand the role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) applications in the energy transition, a prior understanding of their implications on user behavior and energy consumption is essential to identify and prevent potential rebound effects. With a systematic literature review, this paper investigates approaches to quantify behavioral changes and energy impacts for different ICT applications. The review highlights a gap in linking the effects of ICT on users' behavior and impacts on energy consumption over a long time horizon and beyond the specific regional case study. We find that the difficulty in expanding the temporal and spatial resolution is related to the type of approach used to assess user effects. The review highlights and describes the problem of selecting the appropriate approach to perform an analysis that is robust in assessing both changes in user behavior on the one hand, and future energy implications related to ICT applications on the other hand.
CONTACT PERSON
Romain Sacchi
We introduce the concept of samplets by transferring the construction of Tausch-White wavelets to scattered data. This way, we obtain a multiresolution analysis tailored to discrete data which directly enables data compression, feature detection and adaptivity. The cost for constructing the samplet basis and for the fast samplet transform, respectively, is where N is the number of data points. Samplets with vanishing moments can be used to compress kernel matrices, arising, for instance, in kernel based learning and scattered data approximation. The result are sparse matrices with only remaining entries. We provide estimates for the compression error and present an algorithm that computes the compressed kernel matrix with computational cost. The accuracy of the approximation is controlled by the number of vanishing moments. Besides the cost efficient storage of kernel matrices, the sparse representation enables the application of sparse direct solvers for the numerical solution of corresponding linear systems. In addition to a comprehensive introduction to samplets and their properties, we present numerical studies to benchmark the approach. Our results demonstrate that samplets mark a considerable step in the direction of making large scattered data sets accessible for multiresolution analysis.
CONTACT PERSON
Michael Multerer
Panos E., T. Kober, R. Kannan and S. Hirschberg (2021). Long-term energy transformation pathways – Integrated scenario analysis with the Swiss TIMES energy systems model. JASM final report.
CONTACT PERSON
Evangelos Panos
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