To understand Switzerland’s energy transition, the SURE project uses a novel interdisciplinary toolbox that combines quantitative models, data analysis, and social-policy insights. Together, the six core tools provide key indicators of sustainability, development, and resilience across the energy system.
1. GEM-E3-CH: Linking Energy to the Economy
The first tool, GEM-E3-CH, models economic growth based on scenario assumptions (see page SURE/overview). It produces indicators such as GDP, household income, employment, and broader economic impacts.
2. STEM: Energy Demand Meets Economic Growth
STEM takes projections from GEM-E3-CH to determine how energy demand will be met and calculates energy costs and household financial burdens. These costs are then fed back into GEM-E3-CH, since energy prices influence economic growth and household income. GEM-E3-CH and STEM iterate their calculations until energy costs and economic indicators stabilize.
3. BSM: Household-Level Energy Decisions
The Building Stock Model (BSM) focuses on households, analyzing how they meet energy needs for heating, electricity, hot water, and other uses. Using household income and energy prices from STEM, BSM estimates, for example, how many heat pumps or solar panels households might install by 2050. These decisions feed back into STEM, creating a second iterative loop that ensures building-level choices are reflected in the national energy balance.
4. EXPANSE: Local Energy Insights
EXPANSE disaggregates STEM’s results to the canton and municipal level, providing detailed insights into local energy needs. This helps identify implications for local infrastructure, such as gas networks, and highlights regional energy challenges.
5. FlexECO: Grid and Network Analysis
FlexECO examines whether electricity and gas networks can support projected demand. It evaluates grid stability, resilience, and the ability to meet local energy needs under different scenarios.
6. Life Cycle Analysis: Integrating Sustainability
Finally, the impacts on the economy, buildings, energy systems, and infrastructure—including environmental resource implications—are integrated into a life cycle analysis framework. This provides a comprehensive picture of sustainability, resilience, and trade-offs across the Swiss energy system.
The SURE toolbox is designed for iterative, integrated analysis, ensuring that decisions at one level (households, municipalities, or national policy) are reflected across the entire system. It allows researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders to explore how energy, economy, and infrastructure interact—and what is required for a sustainable, resilient energy transition.
Discover the full toolbox and each model here: SURE Toolbox
